Have Comics Peaked?

If you troll the auction sites as much as I do then you’ve noticed something interesting lately. It’s hard to account for every book but many of our favourite keys seem to be levelling out and some even trending downward. The value of books like New Mutants #98, Batman Adventures #12 and even the mighty bellwether, the Hulk #181 at most grades are lower now than they were a few months ago. As well, online sales during this holiday season was, for me personally and for others I’ve spoken to, unusually flat. But before we declare that the sky is falling, let’s think about this in-depth first…

New Mutants #98, CGC 9.8 has appreciated nicely, doubling in value since the announcement of the movie coming this February. However, it seems to have stalled at round $800 and hasn’t been able to climb any higher despite the movie being a month away.
BA12_9.8
Batman Adventures #12, CGC 9.8 has not been able to shoot past $3,000 like I once thought it would. The most recent sale shows the book back at $2,000 with prior sales fluctuating around $1,600 to $1,700. A decline from its all time high of $2,500.
Hulk181_9.0
Hulk #181, CGC 9.0 is the canary in the coal mine. As you can see, this book is off it’s peak and seems to be trending downwards. The higher grades can be misleading since there are fewer sales of 9.8’s.

Historically, much like the stock market, comics have always risen in value. Sometimes certain books would spike or drop but overall the trend was a steady rise. Most notably, the market dropped in the 1990’s and levelled out. During the period of the US housing crisis, the market responded to the economy and liquidity was a problem. The only way you could sell a big book was to drastically discount it, which caused many titles to trend downward. Surprisingly however, the market came roaring back. As the economy improved, comics have been on a tear since. Books like Amazing Fantasy #15 and Hulk #1 in particular have seen tremendous gains, especially in the more affordable mid to lower grades.

Blah, blah
Amazing Fantasy #15, CGC 4.0 is probably the most “key” Marvel book out there. This book has enjoyed a nice climb, especially in recent years, but difficult to gauge any market trend based on this book since it’s always in high demand.
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Incredible Hulk #1, CGC 4.0 reflects the current trend of many key books. After having reached an all time of $16,500 back in 2014, its value has slid back down to an average of $10,000 based on most recent sales.

I spoke often about the huge bulge of baby boomers ahead of us and how movies have afforded us another opportunity to liquidate our collections. We also know that Hollywood has planned films in the pipe up to 2020 and beyond. As such, the strength of “key” issues have never been stronger since the 1980’s. Some people I’ve spoken with feel that the party can and will go on all night, but I’m of the camp that all things come to an eventual end. So the question on my mind is, is this the beginning of the end? No one can answer this of course, and any attempt would be a wild guess. Being in the moment means that we’re to close to see the big picture.

Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has continued to climb since inception. The two canyons you see is the tech bubble from the year 2000 and the housing crisis from 2008. This bird’s eye view of the stock market makes it seem like a sure bet. However, if you were to zoom in on the tiny valleys, you’ll notice some lasting several years or over a decade.
Blah, blah
The NASDAQ shows the same deep scars from the tech bubble and the housing crisis but being a composite of mostly tech companies and being an exchange with less regulation, the highs and lows are more punctuated. Look at the near vertical slope when it rises. How can anyone think such a steep slope can continue indefinitely? People who jumped in at the top got slaughtered. Of course this all seems obvious in hindsight.

When it comes to the stock market, a particular stock, or the market as a whole can suddenly shift and climb. The slope changes and can become near vertical as more people pile in due to positive sentiment. Millionaires are made during this period but eventually things do slow down, or worse… it crashes. The people who get out in time get to keep their money while the rest get slaughtered like pigs. Such was the case for companies like Qualcomm during the tech bubble of the late 1990’s. However, if the company has good fundamentals, it will bounce back from the crash and resume climbing from their new low. It took years but eventually Qualcomm and other good companies have recouped their losses and even surpassed their previous highs. But no one can predict any of this. Many companies go belly up, become delisted or get bought out. Companies like Research in Motion (renamed Blackberry) and Nortel were the darlings of the Canadian economy who have now become case studies for business scholars. If any of this sounds familiar, it’s because the comic market has followed this same pattern. The comic market seems to be in the midst of another correction… but hopefully just a minor one. Perhaps the market is taking a breather after the unusually steep climb we just had. If this was the 1980’s, the current momentum could be considered business as usual but back issues have been flat since the big crash so when it comes to recent history, the current optimism is… out of sorts. We can point to movies, pent-up demand, new young readers… and of course, the ever present “band wagon” as being the stimulus, because if everyone is doing it, it must be good. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard statements such as “I think Star Wars #1 can still double” or “I think Doomsday can be the next Deadpool.” Believe it or not, these are actual comments that people have said to me and when questioned “why”, the typical response is that they just have a “feeling”. Sure Doomsday is credited for killing Superman and is about to be featured in an upcoming film but beyond that, where is the mass affection that Deadpool enjoys in order to keep this book from the 1990’s propped up?

Qualcomm
Qualcomm has been off its high during the past year but as you can see, the thin pillar represents the incredible climb it had during the tech bubble. And despite the crash, it has regained most of the value it lost… but it took about 15 years to do it.
Microsoft
Microsoft shows a similar pattern but thanks to its huge treasure chest of cash, the lows are less severe. The difference between projected earnings and actual value was never as great as Qualcomm.
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By comparison, Yahoo was never able to recover. During the 15 year period after the tech bubble, we saw the rise of Google who took all of Yahoo’s value away. In fact, if you overlay Google on top of Yahoo, the combined pattern resembles Qualcomm and Microsoft. The point being, when it comes to recovery, we are also up against time.

We are still a ways off before older collectors start to retire and cash out in a meaningful way. Many diehards will probably continue to collect well into their retirement because life long habits are hard to break. However, I do believe that many collectors have all the books they need so the majority of the people engaged in the buying and selling of books are speculators like myself. I’ve personally spoken to many collectors who have several hundred long boxes in their basement and are trying to pare down the bulk of their inventory in order to focus on more manageable keys. As well, what will be the mindset of buyers who continually get burned? The people who repeatedly purchase books during the peak of any given hype, only to have the value of their purchase take a dive after the hype has died down. I mean… the money has to come from somewhere, and is anyone interested in the first appearance of Ultron anymore? How do you get rid of these books without taking a haircut? Can these books climb back up like Qualcomm… and if so, practically speaking, are these buyers willing to wait several years or a decade just to break even? Unfortunately, the comic market has no quantifiable data but clearly the negative factors that can cause a retraction is in place.

SW1_9.8
Star War #1, CGC 9.8 has enjoyed a huge pop thanks to the new updated rip-off of Episode IV retitled the Force Awakens. Currently trading between $1,700 to $2,000… can this 1977 movie adaptation double or even triple again by the time the next movie roles around?
Blah, blah
Ms. Marvel #1, CGC 9.8 has crashed after reaching a high of $2,200 back in 2014. Most sales since are bouncing around $1,000 and trending downward. I don’t consider this book to be an indication of the market but rather it does reflect poorly on the buyers. Several people purchased this book at over $2,000… I wanna know just what the heck were they thinking?
Av55_9.4
Avengers #55, CGC 9.4 is a clear example of what can happen once the hype dies down. In 2013, a 9.4 sold for as high as $1,625. By contrast, the most recent sale from December was only $507. At least there will be another Ant-Man movie and another Avengers movie which should help boost books like Marvel Premiere #47 and Avenger #1 again… but how often do they bring back villains? Just something to consider for anyone holding an Iron Man #55.

People like to point to film as the main reason for this recent comic boom but after a decade of top notch movies, do the forthcoming Avengers films have the same cachet these days as the first? Back then, it was joy to see all our heroes in the same picture but with recent movies like Jurassic World, Star Wars and the imminent sequel to Avatar… Avengers is now becoming more of a reason for the individual movies to take place as we eagerly wait for films like Doctor Strange, Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Don’t get me wrong… I enjoyed both Avengers films but how many more movies can they make where a meaningless army goes up against our beloved heroes so that the film can feature each character in action? Perhaps with enough time in-between, each movie can appear fresh. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Blah, blah
My crude chart is a simplification of what typically happens to hot stocks and hot books. The time span and value will vary, stretching and condensing at different points, and often repeating itself over time. In the comic world, the vertical peak represents the 1980’s or the run up of a book like Avengers #55 before taking a dive, otherwise known as the 1990’s. You don’t have to agree with how I simplified the process but it took me over an hour to lay this out so you have to like it.
Blah, blah
Avengers #55, CGC 9.8 still appears strong, with last recorded sale at $3,100. However, high grades can be misleading since they don’t trade as frequently as the lower grades. The last sale of a 9.8 was way back in September, which makes from wonder how a 9.8 would fair today. The big question to ask here is, who do I know that wants this book now that the Age of Ultron movie has come and gone?

I make no predictions other than that Doomsday will NOT be the next Deadpool. I’m no better at predicting the future than the next person but the facts are there for you to interpret any way you’d like. I think we can safely declare that the sky is not falling and that current retraction is probably, hopefully, maybe…  just a bump in road, but be mindful of the fact that the highs are behind us for now. With change also comes opportunity so have fun collecting, buying and selling… but just don’t get caught with the next Avengers #55 once the hype has died down.

Charlie Kim
Charlie Kim

Charlie Kim is a designer who is currently transitioning into teaching. While working for various companies, he helped develop many international brands such as the Hong Kong Airport identity, Lenovo’s sponsorship program for the Beijing Olympics and Lavasa, a new city being developed in India. Locally, he's also worked on the 1998 campaign for the Canadian Opera Company, the Canadian Innovations stamp for Canada Post and the terrible Grand & Toy re-brand (hey, they can't all be winners). Charlie’s love affair with art and design all began with comics.

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David
David
8 years ago

Great article Charlie well researched. It highlights the “lemming”-like behavior of humans in markets. As with all markets Stocks, Bonds, Fine Art, Comics etc people enter the market when its rising and just chase the hot stuff without paying the “school-fees”. What I mean by that they have not bought and sold items and experienced what works and what doesn’t. When you’ve experienced wins and losses you learn a lot mainly from your losses.
Right now the Great Marvel Gold Rush continues but meantime over in the Golden Age, Matt Baker arena, and many other pockets there remain undervalued books beginning to get the attention they have been lacking and deserve.
Comics is a big and broad market some parts could drop but some will go up as well. For those willing to spend time on some research before buying they will do ok I believe. For the Lemmings the time old saying is still fresh “Caveat Emptor” (Buyer Beware)

Thor Odinson
Thor Odinson
8 years ago

Do you remember how huge a movie T2 was? Well, I know many teenagers who have never seen it, and don’t really know anything about it, except perhaps a vague, general idea that the Terminator is a movie and a character with a franchise. So I pin nearly ZERO importance on movies in influencing a comic book’s long-term value. In comics, the weight of history means everything. Maybe it’s largely because of the aging population of collectors. I almost laughed at some of the comments on Walt’s recent undervalued spotlight: for example, “without Gwen Stacy there’d be no Spider-Gwen” etc., — as if that character weren’t already supremely important in the Spider-Man mythos for DECADES before those terrible movies with Emma Stone, and way before whatever current stupid incarnation Marvel has cooked up to rehash, redo, revamp, or clone one of its old ideas. The “no longer dead” Norman Osborn may be a gigantic player in 21st-century Marvel comics, but the value of his (and the Goblin’s) 1st appearances are always going to depend mostly on the fact that he was Spidey’s main villain in the ’60s and ’70s, the seminal era for the character and the whole fictional universe he inhabits. Does anyone cite the Onslaught storyline as a factor in the current value of Professor X’s early appearances? No. Big storyline, but basically irrelevant in the grand scheme, as he was a foundational character since X-Men #1. Movies and current comics may provide a blip that collectors and speculators can exploit (or fall prey to), but that’s about it.

Walter Durajlija
Admin
8 years ago

Fantastic post Charlie.

I’d like to add a thought regarding the softness of the general market, I won’t speak of individual books like Avengers #55, stuff like that will always happen.

Consider as a contributing factor (not the only one) what has been happening in the world currency values over the last 15 months. Consider the fact that more and more American Comic Book pop culture was being purchased by overseas money, including Canadian. Consider collectors and investors buying patterns over the past decade, a decade that saw buying power slowly increase in these non USA markets thanks to their home currency’s value relative the USD$.

Ask yourself as a Canadian how much you feel like paying a 45% premium on a book you were buying at par 3 years ago. Same goes for people holding Euros, Yuans, Pounds etc. All these currencies have lost a lot of ground to the USD over the last little while and it has taken the wind out of non US buyers.

I’m positive Canadians, Germans, Chinese still want that Hulk #181 real bad but they just can’t get past the exchange. This may be enough to stall the general upward trend we were seeing.

I think there is still a ton of foreign money just itching to buy up all those great comics, the demand is still there and now its starting to get pent up.

Walter Durajlija
Admin
8 years ago
Reply to  Charlie

I’m certain weak non US currencies are affecting buying patterns, though I have no idea by how much and you may be right that it is minimal. I’ve talked to guys with books in Canada and many still active participants have opted to “cash out” a certain portion of their collection to reap the exchange. So this adds more supply to an already softening demand.

I think we’ve seen this many times before Charlie. I remember when the Yen was strong way back when and the Japanese were going on a US real estate buying spree. Generally when the American dollar is weak we see an increased activity in the rest of the world snapping up US real estate, US companies, US collectibles. Thus it stands to reason that this activity decreases when the US dollar is strong.

The currency angle is just one I’m adding in to consider. The extent of the effect on the market may be negligible but believe there is an effect.

Gordon
Gordon
8 years ago

For what it’ worth, I’d like to offer some anecdotal evidence to support Charlie’s claim that outside of North America ‘American comics are not as popular as you may think’.

I live in Japan and have a moderate collection of silver and bronze age comics, mainly Marvel with some keys in reasonable shape, that I’m looking to sell.

I thought that there might be some interested collectors in Japan. I mean Japan’s a big place right? They’ve got fanatics for everything right? They like American pop culture right? But I did a lot of searching on line for shops or blogs about collecting older American comics and found nothing. I could only search in English, so I though that might be limiting the results. I decided I’d check out the one shop in Tokyo that looked like it dealt in older American comics. The owner (maybe mid-30’s) had spent some time in LA and had a dozen or so long boxes with a weak collection of Marvel and DC comics, some from the 70’s but most were more recent. No new comics. I asked him if there was any demand. He shook his head. None. He didn’t bother selling boards or bags. He said people don’t care about American comics. They’ve got their own deep manga industry. They certainly weren’t interested in spending money on back issues. He mainly sold t-shirts and action figures, little of it associated with American superheroes. Ok, this guy wasn’t much of a dealer and I have to say his business model didn’t look very sound, but he was the only one I could find. I’m sure there are Japanese collectors of American comics out there somewhere, but it’s a small, and practically invisible community. I’ve given up on the idea of selling anything here.

I also lived in Rome for a while, and although I didn’t really do a lot of research, my impression from online searches was that there wasn’t much of a collector community for American comics there either. The Europeans also have their own comic book traditions.

Comic collectors and speculators all start out with some honest affection for comics. I can’t imagine doing the research needed to make good comic book investments unless you take some sort of pleasure in comic book history, and this pleasure is usually tied up with the fact that comic book history makes up a large part your personal history. Nostalgia will always be the central factor in maintaining interest and demand.

The international success of superhero films won’t fuel demand for American comics in countries where people have no nostalgia for the comic book heroes that inspired the films. Like Walter I wanted to believe that there’s a lot of ‘foreign money itching to buy all those great comics’. But I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that interest for comics (Marvel, DC etc) will always be mainly limited to North America (maybe the England and Australia?) and expats. The only exception might be super wealthy international buyers that can purchase an ultra-expensive book as a trophy.

By the way, this is the first comment I’ve ever made on any web site, which is a testament to how much I enjoy coming here.

Walter Durajlija
Admin
8 years ago
Reply to  Gordon

I’m glad we flushed you out Gordon you’ve offered some great insights and personal observations.

To defend my position a bit I never meant nostalgia driven comic collecting. I’ve always meant the higher end investment market.

I remember years ago when I sold on eBay I’d get German buyers for some of the bigger books, though I did not follow up enough to see if these were ex-pat buyers.

I’ll still hold that there is a market effect here but am noting others opinions that I have overstated it.

jeff harnett
jeff harnett
8 years ago

Reed enterprises which run the New York Comic Con ( 2nd largest Con in America) recently started having them in Paris and London and have signed a deal in China. I would think that speaks better of their interest in our heroes than what you have alluded to.

Dennis De Pues
8 years ago

I also saw a relative lack of interest in Europe last year with very little American comics back issues and a distinct dislike of slabbed books in general.I liquidated some of my major keys and took advantage of the dollar exchange and got a great return on my initial investment. I find it is again a pretty good time to pick up these major keys again although at a higher cost than originally.
The window on the “hot ” book of the day like the Avengers #55(again, just an example, not to pick on this book) can be quite small and it can be easy to buy high and sell low, which as someone who has been around the comic collecting block for a while , try to avoid but still can get caught.I find that if I stay within the confines of what I personally like and therefore know, I do pretty good because of that nostalgic connection.The low Canadian dollar is a challenge but fortunately most of my sales are in the US or in US funds therefore the exchange rate has a tendency to come out in the wash.. One noticeable exception to the European market for me has been Britain.I have sold a fair number of key books into the UK.. Great post Charlie and also great comments from all!

Dennis De Pues
8 years ago
Reply to  Charlie

Well Charlie, Tales from the Comicdenn returns this week! I have been busy working on my Graphic Novel “Splashdown”.100 page story, which is fully pencilled and 2/3rds inked now.I will be doing some shameless self promoting moving forward.
I plan on being back on a regular basis, hopefully every 2 weeks.
All the best!

Robert
Robert
8 years ago

interesting post, but has some flaws:

1. first and foremost, all your price charts are not relevant. simple arithmetic charts of the data won’t compare previous advances and corrections properly. get log charts. then post those. while you’re at it, adjust for a canadian investor in those comics to take into account currency fluctuations.

2. comics are not stocks.. the comparison is not valid.

3. “Historically, much like the stock market, comics have always risen in value. ”

not a valid statement. stocks do not always rise. you don’t have the relevant data to comment on comic values. only on certain books. compile a price chart going back to the 1970’s, then present the findings.

4.. “We are still a ways off before older collectors start to retire and cash out in a meaningful way. ”

that’s the wrong question. the right question is : “are there enough NEW collectors to absorb the selling from older collectors” . again, you don’t have the relevant data.

5. “the only reason any of this stuff is worth money is because some one is willing to pay for it. ”

again, not a relevant point. that’s with everything. wine, art, real estate, computer.

6. “Collectors like to try and explain away the recent surge in key comics, pointing to Hollywood as the trigger. However, superhero movies have always been around.”

what hasn’t been around forever is 3rd party grading, ebay and other auction sites. you’ve failed to take this into account in your post.

7. “The current exchange does not deter me much because I roll the same money back into books.”

maybe YOU do, but the average collector does NOT hold USD accounts waiting to purchase comics. and who held USD while it was collapsing for more than a decade? nope. the USD strength plays a MAJOUR roll in foreign comic purchases.

8. “I don’t see how “minimal” and “negligible” factors can have such a mass effect. ”

prices are always affected at the margin. it’s always the last price that matters.

9. “In general, everybody wants to buy American anyways because the USD is considered the most stable in the world… ”

not true.. the USD is the most LIQUID currency in the world. the SWISS FRANC is the most STABLE. investors know this.

10. “I think the other way we can look at this is… why aren’t any of us invested Chinese Jade, Korean Ginseng roots, Stradivarius violins or Parisian wine? ”

you probably don’t have the money to buy a Stradivarius. LCBO has been offering wine futures for years now to clients willing to buy. just because you don’t have an interest, doesn’t mean others don’t

Robert
Robert
8 years ago
Reply to  Charlie

hey. no worries. it’s easy to find a few books to prove your point. books that have spiked up with massive price gains, and are now settling back down. but that’s what happens when one comes to the conclusion first, then writes a story to prove himself right.

i’m sure it’s easy enough to put up hundreds that are still rising and aren’t seeing any selling pressure at all. but you didn’t list those, did you…..

Richard
Richard
8 years ago

Amazing Spider-Man 50
Amazing Spider-man 129
Strange Adventures 205
Flash 105
Flash 110
Flash 139
Action 242
Action 252
House of Secrets 92
All Star Comics 58
Strange Tales 110
Werewolf by Night 32

the list goes on and on and on….

Richard
Richard
8 years ago

Furthermore, the “canary in the coal mine”, Hulk #181, has suffered a “price drop” in the 9.0 grade. there is NO corresponding price drop in the grades around that. not in the 9.4, 9.2, 8.5, 8.0 and 7.5 grades. these have not suffered any significant price drops, and are trending HIGHER.

pick the one grade that proves your point.

Richard
Richard
8 years ago

looking even deeper into the sales data for 9.0’s, there, there was ONE!! transaction at $3800. ONE!! this was the sole cause of the apparent “collapse”

stephen b. keisman
stephen b. keisman
8 years ago

Well Charlie you know Hulk 181 and Spider-Man is all there ever was, is, and will be in the riches of our field……but of course!

stephen b. keisman
stephen b. keisman
8 years ago

Richard out of your above list 3 or 4 will grow nicely. The rest i have some very strong reservations about. Have a nice day one and all!

Richard
Richard
8 years ago

stephen, those are just examples to counter Charlie’s argument that the sky is falling. all the ones i listed have seen price appreciations without any corrections (yet). yes, some will peak at a point, and stagnate/decline, some will not. it wasn’t meant to be a list of investment comics.

i think it’s simply disingenuous for someone to put up a handful of books, (two of which are modern), that show recent price declines, after a long period of gains, and claims the industry is in trouble.

NM98 and BA12, i wouldn’t even consider part of the discussion. i’ve already discussed hulk 181 and the one false data point, that leaves us with 3? books that have dropped? Ultron, Ms. Marvel and star wars? the health of the comic industry and comic collecting rests on Ms. Marvel and Ultron?

please. give me a break.

stephen b. keisman
stephen b. keisman
8 years ago

Charlie, Bernie + Elizabeth Worden (spelling?) . Or Donald and Worden ? I do not trust the Clintons , or Dems or Repubs as a Disabled Draftee Vietnam Combat Vet!! And i will never accept Block Granting . Just keep the VA Federal and root out any Fraud, Waste and Abuse! e are not Charity Cases!! There was a Contract Made to us , and Viet Vets have suffered because of Apathy, Excessive Greed and Political Rhetoric!! And after 5o years of this will any of these Candidates actually deal with ou r Security issues, as Senator Bob Dole began to address back in the 90s concerning “quality of life issues” Like proper transportation for those of us with PTSD cognitive disorder. Ok comics;—- Will Wolverine even be barely a fleeting memory 5 or 1o years from now!?! Outside the comic collector world, when hollywood loses its love affair , and the rest of the world moves on?? No real solid long term record yet Much to early!!

Jeff
Jeff
8 years ago

As a long time collector, dealer, investor, and comic lover, I want to give my 2 cents.

I believe there is some validity to baby boomers looking to cash out their personal collections. Even big time dealers like Doug Schmell and Greg Reece ( just to name a couple) have recently sold their own personal collections for one reason or another. I don’t necessarily find this to be troublesome for the market because it happens to almost every collection at some point. Every decade has always seen life long collectors cashing out because of age, interest, financial matters, etc. However, to think that losing baby boomers alone will end the vintage/high end comic market is not true. Collectors are seemingly being rolled off of a production line wanting this stuff. My daughter is 16 and has now started to appreciate old books, and I mean 1940’s Captain America and 60’s Tales of Suspense. And she’s not alone, I see lot’s of kids and 20-30 somethings that are very much interested in these old gems. I don’t feel I’ll ever see it’s demise in my lifetime. Perhaps they have out priced themselves to many people, but they are still highly coveted.

I find too many people are using the GPA trends as the gospel valuation tool, and they should not speculate while using this site alone. In fact I’ve been guilty myself. I see a book I’m interested in (GPA trending) at say $1300 and I get one on ebay for $1100 so I can flip it, Then they all start selling for $1100 because they saw the last reported sale, MINE! And I’m stuck with it. Heritage, stores, conventions, and most transactions are not reported to GPA so we only get to see a small percentage of that selling trend, yet many of us rely on it to validate it’s value.
I often times see raw books sell on ebay for more than GPA’s reported figures.

I do believe that cons are much less about comics and all about the broad culture surrounding them. Most of the recent events I’ve attended have been comprised of about 20% comics and 80% everything else. Cosplayers are out of hand, I can’t seem to shop without being hit by a wing or sword. I’m not complaining because it is still good fun, but the foundation of cons are not about comic books,

In terms of why I (and many others) spend money of comics for investment reasons is because they are dear to our hearts and have staying power. I still thoroughly enjoy the art, stories, colors, pulp smell and nostalgic memories they bring back, I can’t get excited about pork bellies, stocks, or even most real estate.

Ed Dee
Ed Dee
8 years ago

The post that wouldn’t die!
Good points Charlie !
” In terms of why I (and many others) spend money of comics for investment reasons is because they are dear to our hearts and have staying power. I still thoroughly enjoy the art, stories, colors, pulp smell and nostalgic memories they bring back, I can’t get excited about pork bellies, stocks, or even most real estate.”
Well said Jeff.

Robert (has been posting as Richard...)
Robert (has been posting as Richard...)
8 years ago

the only one who’s delusional is the gypsy who thinks he knows what’s going to happen 30 years from now in the comic world..

Richard
Richard
8 years ago

Robert (has been posting as Richard…)

yes… busy on the phone trading gold futures….. (not pork bellies)
with no way to correct the error.

Scott VanderPloeg
Admin
8 years ago
Reply to  Richard

Doesn’t seem that complicated: is your name Richard or Robert?

Richard
Richard
8 years ago

Richard. please feel free to correct the error.

Richard
Richard
8 years ago
Reply to  Charlie

you must have many admirers Charles. seems you keep writing about the end of the comic industry….

as i’ve stated. you pick and choose the data and books to justify your articles. comic collecting won’t end. nor will prices collapse.

best of luck to you

Israel
Israel
8 years ago

Hey Charlie,
Great article love learning more about how the comic book market gets affected these days, me being a huge silver age collector i have to be mindful on how i invest my money, as much as i love the hobby i would hate to see my investment go down the drain 15 years from now.
Thank you and Best Regards
Izzy

Gordon
Gordon
8 years ago

The last comic I bought was in 1978. I didn’t pay any attention at all to comics for the next few decades until my siblings forced me take responsibility for my collection and shift it to my place. I’m a bit like Rip Van Winkle waking up to an entirely unfamiliar comic landscape. That’s why sites like this one, where experienced collectors and investors can share their ideas, are so valuable to me.

Richard may have been unproductively discourteous in the way he challenged Charlie on the evidence for a ‘current retraction’ in the overall comic market, but the points he made seem to me valid, not delusional. The comics that have seen a boom in value because of movie hype followed by a decline would seem to be not the best examples to use as evidence of a general ‘retraction’ in the comic book market. Richard’s look into the market performance of Hulk 181 can’t simply be discounted and the examples he provides of comics that continue to appreciate in value provide a helpful counterpoint to Charlie’s assertions. For what it’s worth, from my trolling of the auction sites, things still look pretty hot to me. But my research is done in a Rip Van Winkle, non-GPA, non-quantitative sort of way. I rely on more experienced collectors to offer their insights. I don’t see any reason why sharing these different views can’t be done in a collegial manner.

Apart from an analysis of the current market picture, Charlie’s post looks at the factors that may shape long-term investments. He raises some really fundamental issues (especially for a guy like me who is wondering what to do with his collection) and that’s why the post has attracted some much attention.

Charlie’s basic premise is that is because comic collecting and even high-value investing requires some ‘connection’ to comic books (a position shared by me and many in the comments), comics will eventually see a long slow decline in value as baby-boomers ‘cash out’ (nice euphemism) and younger people lose their connection with comics. This is a position that instinctively feels right to me. But it’s always good to examine your instincts and engage in a little devil’s advocacy.

In the fist place, I’m not sure it’s entirely accurate that baby-boomers are heavily invested in comics. I don’t want to quibble about who counts as a baby-boomer, but I was born in 1961 and it’s only by adhering to the strictest letter of the law (my father served in WWII) that can I be grouped with that cohort. Doug Schmell and Greg Reece (who I didn’t know about until this comment thread) both started collecting at around the same age and time as I did: early 70s. These guys were pioneers in the territory. The settlers came later. The avid interest in comic collecting and speculating came after the most of the baby-boomers had passed through the ages when kids are typically drawn to comics. So where comic investment is concerned I’m not sure that there is such a large demographic bulge approaching whose passing will deflate the market.

But even if you concede the point (and you certainly don’t have to) that older collectors probably aren’t that old (not exactly the group that conglomerates are buying up funeral homes to cater to.), Charlie’s premise may still hold true, it’s just that the inevitable decline may take a little longer. As Richard points out the real question is ‘are there enough NEW collectors to absorb the selling from older collectors’, and Charlie explicitly recognized the importance of this in the comment thread. What sort of hard data would be useful and possible to find in this regard?

It’s hardly scientific but a quick look at celebrity collectors suggests that interest in comic book collecting is widely shared by younger people. Nicolas Cage is a few years younger than I am. Kevin Smith and Eminem are a lot younger. It surprised me to find that Samuel L. Jackson is a classic boomer; looking good for 68.

Charlie offered anecdotal evidence to suggest a complete lack of interest from younger kids, while Jeff provided contrary anecdotal evidence. I’m sure other dealers can speak about the age of their clientele. For what it’s worth, my own lurking in comic book sites gives me the impression that a lot of people active on these sites are younger than me (quite a bit younger). Furthermore, it’s been my experience that comic book collectors have always been hard to find. When I collected comics with a friend in high school, I never met a single other collector (expect at the comic shop, which was never very crowded, and the one convention I went to in 77). In the years since I’ve stopped collecting I have yet to meet anyone else who collected comics, although I’ll admit I often didn’t enquire. We are a rare breed.

I agree with Charlie in that I don’t see a lot of money coming from the non-English speaking world. But as Jeff Harnett pointed out with comic cons being established in Asia and Europe perhaps they will lead to greater foreign investment. Even if cons are only 20 percent comics, they still generate interest and that may increase investments from younger people in North America and abroad. I don’t know.

I also agree with Richard that services like third party certification, on line comic auctions, the GPA analysis have radically altered the investment picture and can’t be ignored. These services are a testament to the increased value of comics, but they have also added value to comics. They have created a comic investment infrastructure (ecosystem?) that has made buying and selling comics easier, less risky and more accessible. There is obviously way, way more interest now in buying and selling comics than when this Rip Van Winkle fell asleep. How long can this interest be maintained is a fair question, but I believe it will continue well after we straggling nostalgia-ridden baby-boomers have ‘cashed out’.

Even if the big players completely phase out print comics in favour of digital (there will always be artisanal comic book makers) I’m not sure investment in older comics will be affected. The move to digital may even boost the market for old comics, by reinforcing the idea of scarcity. In addition, if digital comic archives can make vintage comics accessible to millions of people, this along with ongoing serialized movies and videos games, may sustain interest in original books and generate demand for the true, sacred relics.

Of course the value of some titles will decline. But as Charlie points out the big players have an interest in continually mining their intellectual property. Will bronze-age (and later) super-heroes amass enough cultural weight to attract collectors over the next decades? I expect some won’t, but many will.

But here’s the nub of the matter. Charlie says Schmell probably regrets selling his collection in December 2012. He could have got a lot more if he sold now in February 2016. But if you accept Charlie’s argument that we should ‘be mindful of the fact that the highs are behind us for now’, then for someone with this sort of collection now should be a good time to sell. Don’t wait. I know Charlie would insist that he is not offering advice. It’s just his opinion. He can’t predict the future. But this is the clear implication of his argument. And it’s a little strange because, I don’t think the factors that Charlie indicated as affecting the overall health of the market are likely to have had an effect in the few years that have passed since the Pedigree sale.

Even though I’m grateful for all the thought Charlie put into his great post, which has provoked so much response from knowledgeable people and inspired me to think about and articulate my own views, I respectfully don’t agree with his position. My collection is infinitely less than miniscule compared to Schmell’s, but I don’t feel it will be less valuable in five, ten or fifteen year’s time.

Gordon
Gordon
8 years ago

Ciao Charlie, thanks for the history lesson.
It’s true that I may have a slightly skewed (reactionary?) view of my market options in that I’m not interested in purchasing comics at all. Not because I don’t think there are sound investments to be made in comics. It’s just that I made my investment long, long ago and now I want to make a wise selling decision. Thanks again for the insight. I appreciated your earlier post on selling options and look forward to your next post.

Richard
Richard
8 years ago
Reply to  Charlie

the following is the sales data for Hulk 181 at 9.0 grade for 2015, and 2016 so far.
August 19 saw ONE transaction at $3800. that is a statistically irrelevant data point.
the AVERAGE sale price for the last 36 transactions (including Aug 19) at 9.0 is $2665. Most recent sales are at or ABOVE that. 2015’s first transaction was at $2125. the Average price is 25% HIGHER, and most RECENT 2016 average prices (at $2812) are 32% HIGHER than $2125.

the sky is falling because of one transaction apparently. seems to me it’s the same for all the other grades too. ONE transaction at a higher price, and the comic world is in collapse. look at more than the HIGH/LAST data points, and look at start of 2015, what the average price was, where we are now.. everything is trending higher for Hulk 181’s in any grade from 9.4 down to 5.0 grades

one can make their own conclusions. i wouldn’t take Charlie’s analysis seriously.
it’s one guy writing about the same thing over and over again. collapse of the comic world.

Jan-28-2016 $2,801
Jan-19-2016 $3,175
Jan-18-2016 $2,417
Jan-13-2016 $2,800
Jan-10-2016 $2,868

Dec-06-2015 $2,475
Nov-23-2015 $2,550
Nov-18-2015 $2,951
Nov-15-2015 $2,800
Sep-16-2015 $2,850
Aug-31-2015 $3,199
Aug-19-2015 $3,800
Jul-17-2015 $3,000
Jul-11-2015 $2,550
Jun-28-2015 $2,551
Jun-27-2015 $2,576
May-28-2015 $3,200
May-20-2015 $2,899
May-17-2015 $2,693
May-09-2015 $2,555
May-04-2015 $2,600
Apr-25-2015 $2,900
Apr-10-2015 $2,300
Apr-07-2015 $2,600
Apr-02-2015 $2,350
Mar-26-2015 $2,600
Mar-22-2015 $2,390
Feb-24-2015 $2,350
Feb-23-2015 $2,560
Feb-22-2015 $2,350
Feb-21-2015 $2,500
Feb-10-2015 $2,600
Feb-06-2015 $2,202
Jan-18-2015 $2,325
Jan-17-2015 $2,500
Jan-02-2015 $2,125

stephen b. keisman
stephen b. keisman
8 years ago

2 points, comments. There are various comic book Markets with trends within each and with refined subtle and blatent overlaps. Report; In Dec The New York Historical Society Exhibit Gotham City Super Heroes Superman, Batman,Wonder Woman, Spider-Man, Iron. On display- an Action 1, Batman 1 , and a Wonder Woman 1. and the kids were there looking amazed as if they were ancient treasures !! Have a nice day, and some how wish for the best!

stephen b. keisman
stephen b. keisman
8 years ago

I forgot to mention. Check out Alter Ego Jan #137 issue .Article on the very first comic book convention in 1964. I was one of the 50 people there–good feeling but boy do i feel old! Ha!